Stratospheric warming develops during early November in parts of the polar region with varying response within the troposphere in the middle latitudes. The stratospheric warming event causes North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) to shift to moderate negative phase. The -NAO pattern will produce cold weather in Europe peaking next week.

A classic intense negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly signature representing persistent convection near and east of the Dateline beginning late last May and representative of rapidly developing El Nino has weakened during the past week. For the first time since earlier this year, the southern oscillation index has shifted positive. Has Super El Nino 2026 reached peak intensity?

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2026-27 cold season compared to the last 2 winter seasons and 10-year normal is warm! Only NOV-25 and JAN-24 stand out warmer than the 2026-27 forecast. There are no months during NOV-26 to MAR-27 when U.S. gas population weight HDD are not warmer than the 10-year normal. Historically, for this century, the 2026-27 forecast is consistently warmer than normal but somewhat equidistant between the cold and warm extremes although the DEC-26 projection is close to the warm extreme.

Prohibitive West/South U.S. storm tack ahead with NOAA/CPC highlighting risks for Halloween to November 4th. The pattern will become persistent as the Super El Nino winter climate unfolds.

Snow cover is advancing, providing cold bias, and allowing arctic air to gather during the last third of October. Snow cover advance is notable in Quebec and Northeast/Interior East Asia. Above normal snow cover in these regions has increased significantly during recent days.