Category-3 Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to initiate a northeast turn toward the Baja California Coast tonight, cross Baja California as a hurricane tomorrow, and gradually weaken crossing Northern Mexico Tuesday. Polo is the strongest (892 MB) northern hemisphere major hurricane of 2026 edging Major Typhoon Sinlaku (896 MB). A significant contributor to Polo’s intensity is passage across Marine Heatwave NEP25A which initiated last year and has produced the warmest anomalous ocean temperatures off the Southwest Coast of North America on record.

Drought is “sneaking up” in Australia. In the East, dry soil conditions are expanding and now include the Southeast Coast. The Northwest Australia drought us strengthening a southern reach to Coastal Southwest Australia. The 10-day outlook combing GFS and ECM indicates significant rain in southeast/south portions of Western Australia and possibly the Southeast Coast while elsewhere is dry.

The Europe/Western Russia month 1-5 outlook is based on regional SSTA patterns affecting Europe particularly the East Pacific Super El Nino and resurgent North Atlantic warm hole south of Greenland. Favored is a mild winter across Europe. The risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation events causing cold weather regimes during the winter season is below normal. However, periods of cold and snow are likely in nearby Northwest Eurasia to Western Russia and will create periods when monitoring for cold from the east, especially in January, is important.

The 15-day outlooks are consistent with expansive wetter than normal conditions across Southern Brazil and Paraguay with ECM ENS the most aggressive (wet) forecast. Note that recent rainfall has been abundant through a narrow channel stretching from Northern Chile to central continent to the Brazil Southeast Coast. Either side of the wet weather very dry conditions have persisted.

About 80% of the U.S. is encountering dry-to-drought conditions as calendar summer ends. Amazingly, the wet weather of a Super El Nino will wipe out most of the drought during Q4/2026 except the Northwest States where drought is likely to gain strength.