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08/10/2026, 4:28 am EDT
Along the southern periphery of the active Midwest U.S. weather pattern, building anomalous heat will last through much of the next 2 weeks. The risk of 100F reaches Southern Nebraska and Kansas to the Southern Missouri Valley (and southward) consistently during the hot period. The Mid-south, Southern Plains, and much of Texas receives no rain and Southern Plains drought is expansive.
08/07/2026, 1:48 pm EDT
Cool relief for the Northeast U.S. according to the 12Z GFS while Mid-south heat is intense days 6-10 and widens days 11-15 from the Great Plains to the Southeast U.S. The 12Z GFS maintains an arc of heavy rain and severe weather from the Midwest U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic States.
08/05/2026, 4:57 am EDT
Paris/Orly observed a record 208 CDD during July 2026 eclipsing the previous high mark of 192 (2006). June also produced a record CDD and August 2026 is projected in the top five hottest although a hotter value is certainly possible.
08/04/2026, 4:39 am EDT
The super drought covering much of Europe continues to expand during early August. During the past week, very little rainfall was observed across the southern 2/3 of Europe including the immediate Black Sea region.
07/30/2026, 5:03 am EDT
The U.S. population weight CDD forecast sizzles to a consensus forecast of 95 for the week of August 6-12. All models, except for CMC ENS, are agreeable. If so, August 6-12 will be the hottest week of summer 2026 across the U.S.
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Ongoing Northwest U.S. Air Quality Alert; Core of Dust/Smoke Shifts Southward in Washington This Week
The Northwest U.S. Air Quality Alerts are ongoing. A strong eastward plume of smoke and dust is forecast for midweek, possibly extending across the entire Northern U.S. In 5 days, CAMS (model) indicates the high intensity smoke/dust shifts farther south in Washington State.
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Climate Research: Major Hurricanes During Strong El Nino Years
Historically, major hurricanes observed during AUG/SEP/OCT of strong El Nino years are minimal. Only 1 of 5 analog years produced 2 major hurricanes (2015) possibly related to a warmer North Atlantic basin. In 2026, the North Atlantic basin is projected twice as warm as 2015. Notable storms were Joaquin (2015) and Betsy (1965) for having southwesterly tracks into warmer ocean water to cause significant strengthening as westerly El Nino shear failed to turn these storms northward.