Latest News
09/29/2026, 8:40 am EDT
The Nino SSTA regions in the east-central and far east equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to warm. Currently, Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 have shattered previous record warm SSTA produced by the Super El Nino episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
09/27/2026, 10:29 am EDT
Category-3 Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to initiate a northeast turn toward the Baja California Coast tonight, cross Baja California as a hurricane tomorrow, and gradually weaken crossing Northern Mexico Tuesday. Polo is the strongest (892 MB) northern hemisphere major hurricane of 2026 edging Major Typhoon Sinlaku (896 MB). A significant contributor to Polo’s intensity is passage across Marine Heatwave NEP25A which initiated last year and has produced the warmest anomalous ocean temperatures off the Southwest Coast of North America on record.
09/25/2026, 8:50 am EDT
Drought is “sneaking up” in Australia. In the East, dry soil conditions are expanding and now include the Southeast Coast. The Northwest Australia drought us strengthening a southern reach to Coastal Southwest Australia. The 10-day outlook combing GFS and ECM indicates significant rain in southeast/south portions of Western Australia and possibly the Southeast Coast while elsewhere is dry.
09/23/2026, 5:56 am EDT
The Europe/Western Russia month 1-5 outlook is based on regional SSTA patterns affecting Europe particularly the East Pacific Super El Nino and resurgent North Atlantic warm hole south of Greenland. Favored is a mild winter across Europe. The risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation events causing cold weather regimes during the winter season is below normal. However, periods of cold and snow are likely in nearby Northwest Eurasia to Western Russia and will create periods when monitoring for cold from the east, especially in January, is important.
09/20/2026, 7:40 pm EDT
The 15-day outlooks are consistent with expansive wetter than normal conditions across Southern Brazil and Paraguay with ECM ENS the most aggressive (wet) forecast. Note that recent rainfall has been abundant through a narrow channel stretching from Northern Chile to central continent to the Brazil Southeast Coast. Either side of the wet weather very dry conditions have persisted.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Wetter Argentina/Southeast Brazil; Cooler Argentina Ahead
Upper trough stretched across Northern Argentina produces two expansive areas of rainfall including western and southern Argentina plus expanding Southeast Brazil. Argentina is cooler than normal.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
The New Cool Phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Traditionally, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is based on a simple comparison between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Northeast Pacific (north of 20N) and Northwest Pacific. Warmer Northwest Pacific than cooler Northeast Pacific SSTA regimes = -PDO and visa versa. The entire 2020’s observed persistent cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO). The AUG-26 PDO was -1.84. The International multi-model ensemble (IMME) global SSTA forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 maintains -PDO. But! The lengthiest and strongest -PDO (of the 2020’s) on record is not the same as a conventional -PDO regime.